Fred And The Vaccines

Author: Justin Garza

Date: See below

Description:
This notebook explores the vaccines impact on St Louis

Content Warning:
If you find discussions of death (or injury) or its underlying factors distressing, please proceed with caution or consider whether this content is right for you.

from datetime import datetime
from IPython.display import display
from IPython.display import Markdown as MD
current_date = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
version = datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d.%H%M')
display(MD(f"**Date:** {current_date}"))
display(MD(f"**version:** {version}"))

Date: 2025-02-09

version: 20250209.1834

Setup

In this section, we prepare the notebook by importing necessary libraries, configuring settings, and setting up directories for data and outputs. The setup ensures the environment is ready for data analysis and visualization.

# this code to will import all the things i need for this notebook

import os
import re
import math

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

# for the notebook rendering 
from IPython.display import display, HTML
from IPython.display import Markdown as MD


# Graphs and Charts
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib.colors import Normalize
import seaborn as sns
import plotly.express as px
# use to export plotly graphs
import plotly.io as pio 

#misc
from scipy.stats import spearmanr, kendalltau
import pycountry

# pandas Settings/Options
pd.set_option("display.max_rows", None) 
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", None)
pd.set_option('display.width', 9000)
pd.set_option('max_colwidth', 400)
pd.set_option('display.float_format', '{:.3f}'.format)

# colormap 
heatmapCM = sns.color_palette('Spectral_r', as_cmap=True)


## directories 
DIR = os.getcwd()
print(f'{DIR=}')

DataDIR = os.path.join(DIR,'data')
OutDIR = os.path.join(DIR,'docs')

if not os.path.exists(DataDIR):
    print('***DATA FOLDER IS MISSING***')

if not os.path.exists(OutDIR):
    os.makedirs(OutDIR)

DIR='C:\\Users\\JGarza\\GitHub\\Fred_And_The_Vaccines'

Getting the Data

Source Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

1. Go to Civilian Labor Force - With a Disability, 16 Years and over
2. click download
3. download as CSV

# import Vaccine Data 
df = pd.read_csv(os.path.join(DataDIR,'LNU01074597.csv'))

df = df.rename(columns={'observation_date':'date'})
df = df.rename(columns={'LNU01074597':'count'})

display(df.head(5))

	date	count
0	2008-06-01	5931
1	2008-07-01	6376
2	2008-08-01	6413
3	2008-09-01	6543
4	2008-10-01	6284

title = 'Civilian Labor Force - With a Disability, 16 Years and over'
display(MD(f'### {title}'))
display(MD(f'#### min & max lines calculated with values before 2020-01-01'))

fig = px.line(
    df,
    x='date',
    y='count',
    height=750 ,
    title=title
    )
fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark")

temp = df[df['date'] < '2020-01-01'].copy()
min_temp = temp['count'].min()
max_temp = temp['count'].max()

# adding Min Line
fig.add_shape(
    type="line",
    x0='2009-01-01', 
    x1='2024-01-01', 
    y0=min_temp,
    y1=min_temp, 
    line=dict(color="Grey", width=2, dash="dash"),  # Line style
    xref="x", yref="y"          # Reference axes
)

# adding Max Line
fig.add_shape(
    type="line",
    x0='2009-01-01', 
    x1='2024-01-01', 
    y0=max_temp,
    y1=max_temp, 
    line=dict(color="Grey", width=2, dash="dash"),  # Line style
    xref="x", yref="y"          # Reference axes
)

fig.add_shape(
    type="circle",
    x0='2020-11-01', x1='2021-03-01',  # Keep x values the same for a point
    y0=5846-100, y1=5846+100,  # Define the vertical range
    line=dict(color="Red", width=2),  # Circle border style
    xref="x", yref="y"
)


fig.show()

Civilian Labor Force - With a Disability, 16 Years and over

min & max lines calculated with values before 2020-01-01

Hypothesis

• There should be a causing event that occured in St Louis on January 2021 ?

News (ksdk)

• City of St. Louis to get its first shipment of COVID-19 vaccines Tuesday
  • Published: 4:11 PM CST January 25, 2021
  • Updated: 5:26 PM CST January 26, 2021

ChatGPT

Possible - Conclusion

• Something was wrong with the batch of vaccines the St Luois got
• Something was wrong with all the Vaccines
• This was a delayed reaction from the covid virus, or a new variant of the covid virus
• The Data is bad

if you want to keep digging

• Batch dependent safety - Dr John Campbell (Youtube)
• Viral vaccine paper, Dr Vibeke Manniche - Dr John Campbell (Rumble)
• Batch-dependent safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine - By Dr Vibeke Manniche